The math on texting 10,000 aged leads

The three numbers that decide everything

Every SMS campaign on aged data reduces to three numbers: cost per contact, reply rate, and close rate on conversations. Everything else — the dialer you use, the time of day you send, the vertical — just moves those three.

Cost side: what 10,000 leads actually costs

• The list: 10,000 aged leads at $0.015/lead = $150.
• The sends: a 2-message drip at roughly $0.012/segment ≈ $240 for 20,000 segments. Keep openers to one segment (under 160 characters) or this doubles.
• Scrubbing: a DNC scrub on 10k records runs a few dollars per thousand with most third-party scrubbers. Budget ~$50. Not optional — it protects your license and your carrier registration.

All-in: roughly $440 to put a two-touch sequence in front of 10,000 income-qualified households. For comparison, $440 buys about 15–40 fresh shared internet leads — one afternoon of dials.

Response side: what actually comes back

On a clean, deduped aged list, buyer-reported reply rates for a good opener cluster around 1–3%. Take the low end to stay honest: 1% of 10,000 = 100 replies. Half will be "stop" or "who is this" — fine, that's the filter working. Call it 40–60 real conversations with people who raised their hand.

If you can't close 2 deals out of 50 warm conversations in your own vertical, the list isn't the problem. At a conservative 4% close on conversations, that's 2 bound policies.

The break-even table

Assume ~$750 average first-year commission (blend of ACA, term, and P&C — adjust for your line):

• 0 deals: −$440. This outcome basically requires ignoring your replies.
• 1 deal: +$310. You're profitable at one close per ten thousand records — a 0.01% conversion.
• 2 deals: +$1,060. This is the conservative base case: ~2.4× return on spend.
• 5 deals: +$3,310. This is a good week, not a fantasy — it's a 10% close on 50 conversations.

The asymmetry is the whole argument for aged data: your downside is capped at a few hundred dollars, and one close covers it. Fresh-lead economics can't say that.

What moves the numbers

• Speed to reply. Answer within 5 minutes and conversations convert at multiples of the hours-later rate. Campaigns fail in the inbox, not the outbox.
• State targeting. Only text where you're licensed. Tighter geography also lets you reference local carriers and rates, which lifts replies.
• One question, one segment. The best openers ask a yes/no question in under 160 characters. No links in message one — links kill deliverability.
• 10DLC registration. Register your campaign with your SMS provider before sending. Unregistered traffic gets filtered and you'll never know your real reply rate.

The compliance line (read this)

Aged data leads are not consented insurance-form leads and are not DNC-scrubbed at delivery. Before you text anyone: scrub against the National and State Do-Not-Call registries, register your 10DLC campaign, honor opt-outs instantly, and know your state's texting rules. The math above only works for agents still holding a license.

Run it yourself

The model is public on our order builder — pick your states and volume and the live price does the cost side for you. 10,000 leads is $150, today. Use code PACT for 20% off your first order, and start with a free 100-row sample if you want to see the data first.